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Loboda, TV, Csiszar, IA (2007). Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East within a modeling framework of fire threat. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 17(3), 791-805.

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic. re occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland. re occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of. re threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in. re threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the. re impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within. re threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active. re product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of. re occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of. re ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in. re weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of. reignitions.



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