McManus, KM; Morton, DC; Masek, JG; Wang, DD; Sexton, JO; Nagol, JR; Ropars, P; Boudreau, S (2012). Satellite-based evidence for shrub and graminoid tundra expansion in northern Quebec from 1986 to 2010. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 18(7), 2313-2323.
Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air-photo studies have documented recent changes in high-latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24-year (19862010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest-tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last 40 similar to years. Using a per-pixel (30 similar to m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud-free) land area experienced a significant (P similar to