Publications

Singh, SS; Jeganathan, C (2025). Spatio-temporal trends and resilience of forests in central India: insights from vegetation, temperature, and rainfall dynamics (2001-2023). ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT, 197(4), 352.

Abstract
Natural Vegetation is a key component of the ecological system and is involved in regulating various biogeochemical cycles. Analysis of spatio-temporal trends in vegetation dynamics is crucial to ensure the sustainability of the environment and the safety of biodiversity of the region. Studying forest trends helps us understand the impact of changing climate on forests. The study aims to (a) analyse spatio-temporal dynamics and trends in vegetation vigour, temperature, and rainfall dynamics in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh (CG) states in Central India, (b) identify significant change breakpoints within the study region, (c) compare trend results from EVI and NDVI, and (d) analyse the relationship between vegetation trends with temperature and rainfall. Several normalized indices and reanalysis products were utilized to study vegetation trends from 2001 to 2023, and Theil Sen Median Trend test, Man Kendall test, and Pettitt change point detection methods were used. Findings reveal that the majority of the forest area in MP exhibits a positive trend (similar to 94%in EVI and similar to 95.5% in NDVI) while a negative trend is minimal (similar to 6% and 4.5% in EVI and NDVI respectively). Specifically, the northern part of MP demonstrates a pronounced positive trend. In Chhattisgarh, similar to 92% of the forest area indicates a positive trend, with the remaining similar to 8% displaying a negative trend. The validation of results using Google Earth showed that EVI captures the trend more significantly than NDVI, where vegetation is sparse. Pettitt Change Point detection suggests that the most significant positive changes in EVI occurred between 2015 and 2020 in MP, while in CG, the maximum increase in greenery transpired between 2011 and 2015. The outcomes underscore the resilience of forests to evolving climatic conditions and provide valuable insights into the sustainability of their ecological and biological integrity.

DOI:
10.1007/s10661-025-13767-3

ISSN:
1573-2959