Publications

Im, ST; Kharuk, VI; Petrov, IA; Shushpanov, AS; Dvinskaya, ML; Ondar, SO (2025). Vegetation dynamics at the southern edge of the Siberian mountain taiga. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE, 22(2), 451-465.

Abstract
The growth, survival, and mortality of conifer species in response to the hydrothermal regime have received considerable attention. It is expected that the highest sensitivity of trees to the warming-drying climate will occur mainly at the edges of the species ranges. We focused on the responses to climate change of the drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica) and the moisture-sensitive Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) along the elevation gradient in the Tannu-Ola Ridge, the southern margin where those two species coexist in Siberia by using satellite data (MODIS, Landsat, and microwave), the indexes of gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity, and tree radial growth index (GI). We found that since the warming restart in the 2000s, the area of larch-dominated forests increased by similar to 150% while the area of pine-dominated forests decreased by similar to 10%. The Siberian pine has retreated at low elevations (< 1800 m) and increased its area at higher ones. In contrast, the area of larch stands increased in both the uphill and downhill directions. Birch (Betula spp.) also increased its area at low elevations (about +120%). Since 2001, the forested area increased by similar to 5%. A shrubification, i.e., an increase in the area of shrubs, was observed at high elevations. The uphill rate of timberline and shrubline migration was about 0.3 m/a. Since the 2000s, vegetation NPP has increased by 13%. A notable correlation between NPP and the GI of larch and pine was found (r = 0.5-0.7). At lower elevations, NPP positively correlated with precipitation and soil moisture, while air temperature and VPD (vapor pressure deficit) increase inhibited productivity. At high elevations, the effects of these variables on productivity reversed. The continuous decline of the Siberian pine forest indicates an inevitable retreat of this species at low elevations and its replacement by larch and birch.

DOI:
10.1007/s11629-024-8881-8

ISSN:
1993-0321