Publications

Orimoloye, IR; Belle, JA; Olusola, AO; Ololade, OO (2022). Navigating nature's complexities through Terra MODIS information and downscaled regional climate model: Mainstreaming space-based information for drought disaster risk management. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH, 126, 103136.

Abstract
This study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and their spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for the summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the years 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the other. The result shows that from-24.5 to-25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80-120 mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26 degrees to -28 degrees S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041-2050. This study emphasises the substantial spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and environmental planning in the study area.

DOI:
10.1016/j.pce.2022.103136

ISSN:
1873-5193