Publications

Daneshvar, Mohammad Reza Mansouri; Tavousi, Taghi; Khosravi, Mahmood (2014). Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran. AIR QUALITY ATMOSPHERE AND HEALTH, 7(1), 29-39.

Abstract
At the present study, we applied a synoptic prospect to the analysis of the short-term atmospheric precursors that occurred prior to a major earthquake. The North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake on April 16, 2013 was the first major recorded earthquake in the Middle East for the past 40 years. We compiled the eight atmospheric variables during March, April, and May of 2013 by using NASA/Giovanni and NOAA/NCEP data. According to the anomaly detection of variables, we determined the sudden increasing anomalies for surface-specific humidity, surface-latent heat flux, and surface-wind velocity on April 8-9, of 2013, 6-7 days prior to the earthquake. After the O-3 and NO2 anomalous records and long-term anomaly of pressure levels, we observed the abnormal cloud fractions generated due to a severe greenhouse effect and a violent low geopotential height. Based on satellite observations as obtained from MODIS and Meteosat data, we exposed the local-waved shape of low clouds and circular pattern of high clouds in the synoptic scale, respectively. We believed the greenhouse effect plays a main role in triggering the chain of increased anomalous atmospheric variations, ascending air turbulence, and abnormal cloud circulation 1 week prior to the M 7.8 earthquake. Over the results, we propose to use the continuous monitoring of greenhouse and reactive gasses release, e.g., O-3, CH4, NO2, SO2, etc. as the motive precursor of earthquake precursor's chain, to detection of possible major earthquakes in the active fault region of the Makran subduction zone.

DOI:
10.1007/s11869-013-0214-y

ISSN:
1873-9318; 1873-9326