Publications

Kalashnikova, OY; Gafurov, AA (2017). Water availability forecasting for Naryn River using ground-based and satellite snow cover data. LED I SNEG-ICE AND SNOW, 57(4), 507-517.

Abstract
The main source of river nourishment in arid regions of Central Asia is the melting of seasonal snow accumulated in mountains during the cold period. In this study, we analyzed data on seasonal snow cover by ground-based observations from Kyrgyzhydromet network, as well as from MODIS satellite imagery for the period of 2000-2015. This information was used to compile the forecast methods of water availability of snow-ice and ice-snow fed rivers for the vegetation period. The Naryn river basin was chosen as a study area which is the main tributary of Syrdarya River and belongs to the Aral Sea basin. The representative meteorological stations with ground-based observations of snow cover were identified and regression analysis between mean discharge for the vegetation period and number of snow covered days, maximum snow depth based on in-situ data as well as snow cover area based on MODIS images was conducted. Based on this information, equations are derived for seasonal water availability forecasting using multiple linear regression analysis. Proposed equations have high correlation coefficients (R = 0.89 divided by 0.92 and (S) over bar/(sigma) over bar = 0.39 divided by 0.48) and forecasting accuracy. The methodology was implemented in Kyrgyzhydromet and is used for forecasting of water availability in Naryn basin and water inflow into Toktogul Reservoir.

DOI:
10.15356/2076-6734-2017-4-507-517

ISSN:
2076-6734