Publications

Jury, MR (2018). Warm spells on the East African plateau and impacts in the White Nile basin. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 133(2-Jan), 595-603.

Abstract
This study analyzes warm spells in the dry season over the East African plateau. Lake levels were observed to decline in the period July 2004 to January 2007. The warmest spell was identified using maximum temperature and satellite outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations averaged over Uganda: 20-22 Feb 2005. Meteorological conditions in that case were dominated by a surge of the NE monsoon from the Arabian Sea toward East Africa. Subsiding air induced daytime land surface temperatures > 55 A degrees C. Dry easterly winds swept across Uganda, and the vegetation fraction dropped > 10% in 1 month. At the seasonal scale, the NE monsoon intensity over the Arabian Sea correlated with indices of desiccation over the White Nile basin. In the annual cycle, sensible heat flux follows potential evaporation, reaching -4.5 mm/day in February. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections favor a long-term weakening of the NE monsoon and a northward migration of the equatorial trough over the west Indian Ocean in Dec-Mar season. Although maximum temperatures are projected to rise +2 A degrees C by the end of the 21st century, the length of the dry season could shrink, thus maintaining the water balance near current levels.

DOI:
10.1007/s00704-017-2195-5

ISSN:
0177-798X