Publications

Munawar, S; Tahir, MN; Baig, MHA (2021). Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs. JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, 12(7), 2993-3004.

Abstract
Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. The study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2015 using R-2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R-2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89-0.95 and 0.8-1.02 for temperature and 0.86-0.96 and 0.57-1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 degrees C to 3.8 degrees C in temperature, 2-7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3-7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to baseline period. Results depicted increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin.

DOI:
10.2166/wcc.2021.283

ISSN:
2040-2244