Publications

Nath, D; Sasikumar, K; Nath, R; Chen, W (2021). Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change. SUSTAINABILITY, 13(6), 3029.

Abstract
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious threat to global health system and economy. It was first reported in Wuhan, China, and later appeared in Central Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The spatial COVID-19 distribution pattern highly resembles the global population distribution and international travel routes. We select 48 cities in 16 countries across 4 continents having infection counts higher than 10,000 (by 25 April 2020) as the COVID-19 epicenters. At the initial stage, daily COVID-19 counts co-varies strongly with local temperature and humidity, which are clustered within 0-10 degrees C and 70-95%, respectively. Later, it spreads in colder (-15 degrees C) and warmer (25 degrees C) countries, due to faster adaptability in diverse environmental conditions. We introduce a combined temperature-humidity profile, which is essential for prediction of COVID-19 cases based on environmental conditions. The COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on global CO2 emission hotspots and its distribution maximizes at 7.49 degrees C, which is 1.35 degrees C/2.44 degrees C higher than current (2020)/historical (1961-1990) mean. Approximately 75% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe-extreme end of historical temperature distribution spectrum, which establish its tighter and possible association with extreme climate change. A strong mitigation measure is essential to abate the GHG emissions, which may reduce the probability of such pandemics in the future.

DOI:
10.3390/su13063029

ISSN: