Publications

Han, XL; Lei, CY (2024). Regional-level prediction model with difference equation model and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration data. MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES, 47(5), 3171-3181.

Abstract
Accurate reporting and prediction of PM2.5 concentration is very important for improving public health. In this article, we use spectral clustering algorithm to cluster 15 cities in the Pearl River Delta. On this basis, we propose a special difference equation model, especially the use of nonlinear diffusion equations to characterize the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of PM2.5 propagation between and within clusters for real-time prediction. For example, through the analysis of PM2.5 concentration data for 91 consecutive days in the Pearl River Delta, and according to different accuracy definitions, the average prediction accuracy of the difference equation model in all city clusters is 97% or 88%. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the forecast data for each urban agglomeration is within 7 units ( mu g/m3). Experimental results show that the difference equation model can effectively reduce the prediction time and improve the prediction accuracy. Therefore, based on the spectral clustering algorithm and the difference equation model, the fastest prediction speed and the best prediction result can be obtained, and the problem of PM2.5 concentration prediction can be effectively solved. The research can provide decision support for local air pollution early warning and urban integrated management.

DOI:
10.1002/mma.7450

ISSN:
0170-4214