Publications

Jafari, F; Isazade, V; Qasimi, AB; Chen, SS; Sattarzadeh, S (2024). Exploring the Effects of Urmia Lake's Variability on Adjacent Cities and Villages. JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF REMOTE SENSING, 52(7), 1561-1577.

Abstract
Environmental crises in Iran, including lack of rainfall and drying rivers, wetlands, and lakes, have caused natural and human hazards and vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the drying of Urmia Lake as a national crisis can significantly create natural and human problems and risks. In this paper, based on annual Landsat satellite images and long-term changes in land cover using the output of the GEE system, we investigate shifts in the water level of Lake Urmia. The effects of its drying on the trend of population changes in surrounding settlements (cities and villages) from 1986 to 2021 indicate that Urmia Lake's water level is expected to be 1271.39 m in 2021. The lake's salt area has increased by 465 Km2 due to its drying trend from 1986 to 2021. The water level estimate for the lake in November 1986 was 1275 m, indicating a 3.7-meter drop in Urmia Lake's water level. Indeed, from 1995 to 2021, the lake lost approximately 48% of its area and 89% of its volume. It was observed that water reduction has a negative effect on the level of Urmia Lake. Modis imagery -using the Linear Fit algorithm- shows an unbalanced relationship in lake water use between 1986 and 2021. The trend of the water area decreasing in Urmia Lake caused five centers of salt dust in the lake. The dust from the five centers significantly impacted the surrounding settlements (cities and villages). Most of the towns in a county like Tabriz (-3.3%), Azarshahr (-0.7%), and Malekan (-0.6%) have negative population growth instead, in urban areas like Urmia (4.3%), Osku (7%), and Azarshahr (3.4%). Increasing in the population happened. Thus, drying lakes and dust and salt centers have a terrible effect on more than 7 million people in villages and cities and intensified migration from 1986 to 2021.

DOI:
10.1007/s12524-024-01886-2

ISSN:
0255-660X