Publications

Vatan, MAK; Nemati, M; Sekertekin, A; Aslkhiabani, MZ (2025). Time series trend detection and forecasting of SUHI in Tabriz, Iran. URBAN CLIMATE, 59, 102321.

Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the seasonal daytime and nighttime SUHI trend of Tabriz, using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall, Innovative Trend Analysis, and MODIS data, and to forecast the SUHI trend by 2030 using SARIMA and NNAR. Considering the SUHI analysis, daily MODIS images were processed in the Google earth engine platform. Based on mean SUHI values, the analysis showed that Tabriz has insignificant daytime SUHI, and the mean Summer SUHI is negative (-3.9 degrees C). Conversely, mean nighttime SUHI is positive for all seasons. Furthermore, the annual mean of SUHI is negative in the daytime, while positive in the nighttime. Also, Tabriz has daytime cool islands and intense nighttime heat islands. Considering the MK analysis, the negative monotonic trend is captured for all the seasons except Winter during daytime. On the other hand, ITA analysis revealed that the mean SUHI trend in winter and autumn was trend-free, whereas a decreasing trend was observed for Spring and Summer. Based on the forecasting SUHI for 2030, the NNAR outperformed the SARIMA by presenting lower RMSE. Overall, this study presented seasonal and annual daytime and nighttime SUHI analyses of Tabriz, and showed that the MODIS data enables effective long-term SUHI evaluations at regional scales.

DOI:
10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102321

ISSN: