Publications

He, B; Chang, JX; Guo, AJ; Wang, L; Li, ZH; Zhai, DR; Gao, F (2025). Spatial and temporal runoff variability in response to climate change in alpine mountains. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 654, 132779.

Abstract
The sensitivity of snow and glacier melt processes in alpine mountains to climate change, along with the variations in snow and glacier distribution with elevation, can significantly affect runoff and its components. However, the influence of climate and elevation on runoff component changes remains unclear. This study employs the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model, incorporating a multi-stage calibration method for snowmelt, glacier melt, and confluence, using data from MODIS and GRACE satellites. The aim is to quantitatively analyze runoff components in the Tarim River Basin's four source streams and reveal the impacts of climate and elevation changes on runoff and its components. Results indicate that runoff in the four source streams is primarily recharged by snow and glacier meltwater at high elevations and rainfall at lower elevations. The Hotan and Yarkant Rivers are mainly glacier melt runoff, while the Aksu and Kaidu Rivers are mainly rainfall runoff. Runoff increasing for glacier melt-dominated rivers occurs at high elevations (3500-5000 m) and ultrahigh elevations (>5000 m), whereas runoff increases for rainfall-dominated rivers occurs at middle elevations (2000-3500 m). Temperature and precipitation positively impact water resources in the four source streams. Specifically, a 10 % temperature increase during summer results in a 7.2 %, 6.5 %, 4.7 %, and 4.4 % increase in total runoff, while a 10 % precipitation increase causes a 2.7 %, 3.8 %, 5.0 %, and 5.5 % increase in runoff. Precipitation mainly affects the Aksu and Kaidu Rivers' discharge, whereas temperature mainly affects the Hotan and Yarkant Rivers. This study provides a reference for understanding hydrological processes in similar environments, which is crucial for researching alpine mountain hydrology under climate change.

DOI:
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132779

ISSN:
1879-2707