Publications

Rani, S; Singh, S; Singh, J; Tiwari, P; Mal, S (2025). Estimating the variations and trends of surface skin temperature across the Indus River Basin. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES.

Abstract
The Earth's skin temperature (SKT) can be useful for monitoring the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the energy exchange of land-atmosphere in the world's mountains and adjacent plains. Thus, this study aims to analyze the distribution and trends of SKT in the Indus River Basin (IRB) using reanalysis and remote sensing data from 1981 to 2021 by applying the Theil Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall significance test. It explores how SKT interacts with various factors, including air temperature (at 2 m), total cloud cover, land use/land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and snow cover area, using Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression. The findings show a significantly rising trend in the annual mean SKT of the basin (0.32 degrees C/decade). The highest SKT warming is found in post-monsoon (0.53 degrees C/decade), followed by pre-monsoon (0.51 degrees C/decade), winter (0.44 degrees C/decade), and monsoon (0.38 degrees C/decade). Among the sub-basins of the IRB, Kabul (0.39 degrees C/decade) is experiencing the highest warming trend, followed by Upper Indus (0.35 degrees C/decade), Panjnad (0.29 degrees C/decade), and Lower Indus (0.27 degrees C/decade). The study also found enhanced warming in the basin at elevations between 1500 and 4500 m asl. The warming trends in the study area with local variations may be ascribed to the rising air temperature, total cloud cover, NDVI, and decreasing snow cover area. The rising SKT may seriously affect the basin's energy balance and ecosystem. The present study would help to improve the understanding of the SKT dynamics in land and water resource planning of the study region.

DOI:
10.1007/s00531-025-02497-z

ISSN:
1437-3262