Publications

Zafar, Z; Nadeem, AA; Zha, YY; Gilani, H; Tariq, A (2025). Snow cover variability assessment and its interplay with hydro-climatic characteristics in data scarce region of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, 382, 125375.

Abstract
The upper Indus basin (UIB) provides a large portion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply. Snow and glacier melting contributes significantly to the annual flow of the UIB. A spatio-temporal assessment of snow cover dynamics and the hydrological response in the context of climate change is vital for better water resource management. This study utilized daily snow cover product (MOD10A1) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate the changes in snow cover area (SCA) of UIB from 2002 to 2022; climatic data from remotely sensed satellites (ERA5-Land) for the last 50 years were utilized to assess the climatic trends using modified Mann-Kendall trend test and available hydrological data was utilized to evaluate the hydrological characteristics of Gilgit-Baltistan from UIB; and correlations between snow cover and hydro-metrological variables are identified using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation coefficients according to availability of data. According to results, the maximum SCA varies between 27 and 89 % from summer to winter. SCA of GilgitBaltistan is experiencing a very slight decreasing trend with tau = -0.0187. Conversely, the streamflow of GilgitBaltistan showed an increasing trend; summer precipitation also underwent an increasing trend, and the temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan also exhibited an increasing trend. Thus, the streamflow of Gilgit-Baltistan is an amalgamation of rainfall in summer with snow and glacier melt due to temperature. The decrease in SCA and increase in supply suggested greater water availability, which may cause a flood downstream and indicate water scarcity in the future. Both conditions require prompt attention to prevent flooding, and the implementation of advanced water management strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure is essential to ensuring adequate water availability in the future.

DOI:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125375

ISSN:
1095-8630